state election in Hamburg 
is in Hamburg on Sunday elected the new citizenship. It is the first of seven state elections this year that could change the political landscape in Germany thoroughly. In March, the state parliaments of Saxony-Anhalt, elected in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, in May in Bremen in September in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in September in Berlin.
All surveys assume that the SPD will enter in Hamburg after ten years of CDU, had a clear election victory. Polls tell her to advance to 45 percent of the vote, 10 percent more than in 2008. The CDU, however, must anticipate a debacle. It is located in the polls below 25 percent after they had won the elections in 2008 even with 43 percent. The Greens are at 15 percent and left at 6 Percent. The FDP, which had not in 2008, the river just in the citizenry, must once again worried about the 5 percent hurdle.
It is certain that the SPD's top candidate, Olaf Scholz will move as the new mayor to the town hall of Hamburg. Is open only if he takes to the Greens as coalition partner. Again missed the FDP, the five percent could be the SPD win the absolute majority of parliamentary seats.
The success of the SPD, which is Germany still in the opinion polls, have both local and federal political causes.
2008, in Hamburg, the first black-green coalition was formed at the country level. Mayor Ole von Beust (CDU), who from 2001 to 2004 with the extreme right-wing Schill party and then only governed teamed up with the Greens. This gave up most of their demands to be accepted by conservatives as a partner.
the federal government, where the grand coalition of CDU and the SPD suffered from paralysis, this triggered a black and green euphoria. "Obviously, the Hamburg coalition - despite all denials - are the ultimate role model for the federal government," then announced Joschka Fischer, the former Green foreign minister.
But the outbreak of the international financial crisis foiled these plans. The Great Coalition presented the banks of 500 billion € of public funds available. As a result, CSU and SPD lost massive support. In the general election in autumn 2009, which benefited the FDP. But the newly formed black-yellow coalition met the expectations that the economy had put into them.
The arrogance with which the FDP served the interests of their wealthy clientele, brought large sections of the population against them and had to shrink their poll numbers. The Union has been paralyzed by infighting. Several Prime Ministers, Federal President Horst Köhler, and most recently, Bundesbank President Axel Weber turned away by Chancellor Merkel, because they failed to sufficiently advocated a strict Austeritätskurs.
In summer 2010, also raised the Hamburg mayor Ole von Beust in the towel after one worn by him and the Greens had failed school reform in a referendum. He threw the black-green coalition in Hamburg, a major crisis. But although a right to Christoph Ahlhaus hardliners became his successor, put the Greens coalition with the CDU continued for the time being.
now turned the political tide. Given the fragmentation of the Berlin coalition of many representatives of the ruling elite opted for a return of red-green. Finally, the government Schröder-Fischer 1998-2005, the most comprehensive social cuts since the Federal Republic by set, created with the Hartz laws a huge low-wage sector and the resistance by using the other hand, the unions successfully suppressed.
end of November, the Greens announced the surprising black-green coalition in Hamburg and forced to call new elections. Apparently, they hoped that a red-green victory will put in Hamburg a draw to the other six state elections this year.
Above all, a victory of the SPD and Greens in Baden-Württemberg, governed since 1953 by the CDU, the CDU would be hard to shake and possibly a rebellion the conservative wing of the party against the party chairman and Chancellor Angela Merkel trigger. The wave of protests against the project "Stuttgart 21" had the Baden-Württemberg CDU already hit hard last year and the Greens and the SPD in the polls at times brought a big lead. Meanwhile, the election applies, however, again as open.
In Hamburg, the SPD on the one hand benefit from the crisis of the local CDU and the unpopularity of the CDU leadership candidate Chris Ahlhaus, on the other hand, on the national mood for change to red-green. Above all, liberal bourgeois media like Stern, Focus, and have real-time hymns of praise to the SPD's leading candidate Olaf Scholz published.
Scholz, for its part, left no doubt that he will continue the course of his conservative predecessor consistently. His election campaign is very focused on the better-off middle classes, who previously voted for the CDU and the Greens. His motto is "pragmatism, reliability and integrity." Terms such as "justice" and "solidarity" with the SPD earlier to decorate their election programs used can be found in Scholz's program is not.
is the first event, "Sound finances. Literally committed the SPD: "An SPD-led Senate will bring the shattered finances in order. We want to achieve by 2019 a structurally balanced budget and then make any new debts. "
Given that Hamburg has to Bremen and Berlin, the third highest per capita debt of all German federal states and last year alone, two billion € new debt Date added (a total expenditure of 10 billion euros), then this goal can be achieved in all areas of expenditure only through drastic cuts.
The few social concessions, which promises the SPD program - more teachers, smaller classes and the abolition of tuition fees - to be thus Waste. is in the program, it also states: ". We will decide on new projects only if it is determined at the same time, how they are funded (" pay as you go ') "
The second item on the program -" strong economy "- promises of economic generous support . Shall undertake the SPD, "the necessary adaptation of the fairway and Elbe push" and "to promote a new culture of independence".
The promise: "We will provide for more police presence on the streets of the city," found in the electoral program of the SPD.
Scholz enjoys the confidence of the ruling elite because he has repeatedly asked to demonstrate its ability to implement a program right in practice.
During the state election campaign 2001, he had as Hamburg's Senator that has forced administration of emetics against drug dealers, although many lawyers opposed the measure as a serious interference with the physical integrity and the Medical Council of Hamburg because of the health risks against it. The measure calls for eventually one fatality. In December 2001, the 19-year-old Cameroonian Nwabuisi Michael died of a police arranged emetic use. defended
From 2002 to 2004 Scholz, general secretary of the SPD, the "Agenda 2010" Gerhard Schroeder against intra-party opposition. Because of the coolness with which he ran back then bounce off any criticism, he pulled the top name Scholzomat "too.
rose in the grand coalition Scholz then on to the Federal Minister of Labour and managed the Hartz laws. From that time he established a close friendship with greats like Röttgen CDU, Volker Kauder and Thomas de Maizière, that he himself name basis.
The Greens have left no doubt that they are ready in all circumstances to a coalition with Scholz's SPD are. Were they in the race is on concrete demands defined - such as the rejection of the Elbe dredging and coal power plant Moorburg - which they then brought the coalition with the CDU to the victims, they have this time largely dispensed with in a concrete setting, and to general views on environmental protection and for a "green city" is limited. Scholz 'savings targets they agree explicitly.
The FDP has indicated its willingness to form a coalition with the SPD in the hope to overcome the five-percent hurdle. Scholz has ruled out a coalition with the FDP, however.
The problems of the 70,000 unemployed, the 60,000-Hartz IV recipients and of the 250,000 immigrants in the 1.8-million city Hamburg came in the campaign nor the language, like that of many employees, who must struggle through in precarious employment relationships. The working class has no voice in this election.
The Left Party tries to widespread social discontent with claims "fight poverty" as, "create jobs", "Hartz IV has to go" and collect "affordable rent". But she believes that "implement without recovery of public finances over the medium Sichet no fundamental change in policy in Hamburg" is can be as Joachim Bischoff writes on the Web site of the party.
Experience have with the red-green government coalition in Berlin, the SPD-PDS government in Brandenburg and the tolerance of the Left-Green coalition in North Rhine Westphalia sufficiently proved that the Left is willing to give all the social cuts, and the SPD as any majority buyer available. Their social slogans used purely to prevent a social movement from below. If everything is above board, well, some company cars are less streets of Hamburg. Let's wait.
After at Stuttgart 21 could not decorate with feathers, he hastily added a new idea to get into the newspapers. 
is in Hamburg on Sunday elected the new citizenship. It is the first of seven state elections this year that could change the political landscape in Germany thoroughly. In March, the state parliaments of Saxony-Anhalt, elected in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, in May in Bremen in September in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in September in Berlin. 
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